מלכים ב, פרק י״ז, פסוק כ׳

The downfall of the Kingdom of Israel was not a sudden catastrophe but a gradual, tragic unraveling. The primary approach among commentators is that the historical chain of events unfolded step by step, exactly as forewarned in the Torah. During this period, God rejected only the Kingdom of Israel, sparing the Kingdom of Judah [מצודת דוד]. This selective judgment served a dual purpose: aside from punishing Israel, it was intended as a stark warning for Judah. The hope was that the southern kingdom would witness the disaster, take the moral lesson to heart, and avoid following the same destructive path [מלבי״ם].

The process of downfall began with preliminary afflictions meant to wake the people up [מצודת ציון]. These early sufferings took the form of deep poverty, severe famine, plagues, and various natural disasters [רלב״ג, אברבנאל, מלבי״ם]. When the people refused to change their ways in response to these hardships, the divine response intensified. God handed them over to hostile enemies and ruthless plunderers [מצודת ציון, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. A clear example of this escalation occurred during the reign of Jehoahaz, when Aramean forces brutally attacked and devastated the Israelites [מלבי״ם, ביאור שטיינזלץ].

It was only after all these preliminary warnings and sufferings failed to inspire repentance that the final, absolute stage of judgment arrived. God cast the people out of His presence. This ultimate rejection meant being driven out of God's chosen land [מצודת דוד] and completely removed from His divine protection and providence [מלבי״ם]. The tragic sequence concluded with the Assyrian Empire conquering the nation and forcing the Israelites into exile in a foreign land [רלב״ג, ביאור שטיינזלץ].