The tragic breaking point in the history of the Kingdom of Israel stems from a political rebellion that quickly morphed into a permanent spiritual disaster. Severing ties with the legitimate monarchy set off a chain reaction of fear, idolatry, and ultimate destruction.
The primary approach among commentators is that the responsibility for this catastrophic split lies first and foremost with the people. The Israelites actively initiated the division, cutting themselves off from the royal house of David and leaving the tribe of Judah isolated [מלבי״ם, מצודת דוד]. Although a prophet had previously foretold that the kingdom would be divided, the people acted entirely on their own initiative. They crowned Jeroboam without seeking any guidance from God or His prophets at the time of the coronation [מצודת דוד, רלב״ג, אברבנאל].
This initial rebellion against the Davidic dynasty directly motivated Jeroboam to lead the nation into sin. Recognizing the fickleness of a people who so readily abandoned their righteous kings, Jeroboam feared they might just as easily turn against him and return to Jerusalem [אברבנאל, מצודת דוד]. To secure his grip on power and prevent the masses from making religious pilgrimages, he deliberately distanced them from the worship of God by erecting golden calves in the cities of Dan and Bethel [מצודת דוד, אברבנאל, ביאור שטיינזלץ].
The consequences of this decision were profound. Jeroboam did not merely mislead the people; he actively pushed, rejected, and cast the Israelites away from following God [רלב״ג, רד״ק]. The sin of the golden calves became so deeply entrenched in the national identity that even in later generations, when other forms of idolatry were eradicated, the calves remained untouched. This was because the profound physical and political separation from Jerusalem had become a permanent fixture of their society [מלבי״ם].
The wickedness that began with Jeroboam ultimately triggered the exile of the Ten Tribes. Interestingly, this final collapse occurred during the reign of Hoshea, a king who was actually less wicked than his predecessors. This timing is understood in two ways. First, the destruction was not solely the result of Hoshea's personal failures, but rather the heavy accumulation of sins from all the preceding kings of Israel. It was much like a person who consumes a harmful diet for many years until the body suddenly and inevitably collapses. Second, Hoshea actually took a positive step by removing the road guards that Jeroboam had originally stationed to block pilgrimages, granting the public complete freedom to travel to Jerusalem. However, the people chose of their own free will to continue their idolatry rather than visit the Temple. At that exact moment, the burden of guilt shifted from the monarchy directly onto the shoulders of the general public, firmly sealing their fate for exile [אברבנאל].