A profound spiritual awakening is often born from the depths of tragedy and heavy mourning. The process of ultimate redemption is not merely a triumph, but a complex intertwining of heartfelt prayer, the shock of loss, and bitter lamentation. At the dawn of this era, God promises to pour out an abundance of spiritual grace. He instills within the nation a powerful inclination and desire to pour their hearts out in prayer [מצודת ציון, רש״י]. Because of this intense yearning, their supplications are accepted, and they find profound mercy and favor in God's eyes [רד״ק, מצודת דוד], as well as in the eyes of all humanity [רד״ק בשם אביו]. This spiritual elevation encompasses the entirety of the nation, represented completely by both the royal lineage of Judah and the rest of the tribes living in the holy city [אברבנאל].
Yet, from within this state of divine closeness, a devastating crisis emerges. The people are confronted with the violent death of someone struck down by a sword in battle [מצודת ציון], prompting them to look toward God in shock and searching. The primary approach among commentators identifies this fallen figure as the initial redeemer, the Messiah son of Joseph, who is destined to be killed in war [רש״י, מצודת דוד, אבן עזרא, מלבי״ם, אברבנאל]. His tragic death serves as a catalyst, awakening the nation to profound repentance. They look to God with the painful realization that this leader died because of the sins of their generation, feeling as though their own transgressions were the very weapons that pierced him [מלבי״ם]. Alternatively, this gaze toward God might actually come from the surrounding nations, who watch in absolute terror as God prepares to exact vengeance upon them for killing this initial redeemer [אבן עזרא].
However, because the identity of the fallen victim remains anonymous, other perspectives suggest the tragedy is not about a specific messianic figure [רד״ק, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. Instead, it may represent a collective mourning for every Jewish life lost to violence in exile [רש״י]. Another approach suggests that during an era of expected divine protection and prosperity, the death of even a single, ordinary soldier on the battlefield will trigger immense astonishment. The people will view the loss of an anonymous individual as a catastrophic fracture and a terrifying omen of defeat, turning to God in absolute shock over that single casualty [רד״ק].
In the wake of this loss, the nation breaks into a bitter, heart-wrenching lament [מצודת ציון, מצודת דוד, רד״ק]. The grief is compared to the agony of losing an only child and the deep sorrow of losing a firstborn. These two painful metaphors reflect the evolving stages of their grief. At first, they mourn the fallen leader as an only child, devastated by the feeling that he is utterly irreplaceable. Yet, even later, when the final redeemer, the Messiah son of David, arrives and ultimate salvation is achieved, the sorrow will not entirely fade. They will continue to weep for the initial fallen leader as one mourns a firstborn. Because he was the first to lead them toward salvation, his absence leaves a unique, lingering ache that even the joy of final redemption cannot erase [מלבי״ם, ביאור שטיינזלץ].