The parable of the lioness continues, depicting a nation struggling to rebuild its leadership after the tragic loss of its previous ruler. The mother lioness in this story represents either the entire congregation of Israel [רש״י] or specifically the royal house of King Josiah [מצודת דוד, אברבנאל, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. As the nation faced this sudden void in leadership, it endured a period of deep distress. Some understand this phase as a time of collective sickness and pain [רש״י, אברבנאל]. However, the primary approach among commentators is that this was a period of agonizing waiting. The kingdom held out for a long time, anticipating the return of the exiled previous king, Jehoahaz. Eventually, they realized he was never coming back [רד״ק, מצודת דוד, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. This realization was a devastating break, representing the complete severing of their expectations [רד״ק].
A subtle distinction is made here between expectation and hope. Expectation relies on a clear, assured promise, while hope is merely a wish for something uncertain. Initially, the kingdom firmly believed they had a guarantee that their exiled king would return. When this expectation failed, they saw that even their faintest, unpromised hopes were completely lost [מלבי״ם]. Driven by despair, the kingdom took another of Josiah's royal sons, Jehoiakim, to fill the void [רש״י, מצודת דוד, ביאור שטיינזלץ, חומת אנך]. In the parable, he is raised to become a young, heroic lion, a symbol of a powerful king [רש״י].
Historically, it was the Egyptian ruler, Pharaoh Necho, who placed Jehoiakim on the throne. Yet, the narrative credits the nation itself with crowning him. This is because Pharaoh acted with the full agreement of the people and the royal house of David, making it as though the nation alone appointed him [רד״ק, אברבנאל, מלבי״ם]. Another perspective suggests that Jehoiakim was actually a naturally weak man, far from a heroic lion. It was the people who artificially built him up, treating him as a mighty ruler and making him into the lion he appeared to be [מלבי״ם]. Despite the renewed hopes invested in this new king, his reign ended in tragedy. His enemies sought to capture him and bring him in chains to Nebuchadnezzar, king of Babylon, intending to silence his voice forever across the mountains of Israel. Ultimately, he never even made it to the Babylonian prison, dying while still on the journey [חומת אנך].