The command to wage war against Midian is rooted in present and future realities, rather than merely past grievances. It addresses an ongoing, calculated campaign of seduction, idolatry, and intense hostility. The primary approach among commentators is that the danger is continuous; the Midianites are not satisfied with their previous success in causing the Israelites to sin, but actively harbor resentment and plot new schemes, particularly to avenge the death of Cozbi [אבן עזרא, שד״ל, כלי יקר, מלבי״ם, העמק דבר]. This ongoing hostility triggers the principle of self-defense, dictating that one must strike first against an imminent deadly threat [חזקוני, כלי יקר, מלבי״ם, בעלי ברית אברם]. Furthermore, this enmity is highly unusual. While conflicts typically arise from prior wrongs, the Midianites deliberately weaponized their own daughters simply to cause the Israelites to stumble, despite having suffered no previous harm from them [רש״י, שפתי חכמים, מזרחי].
The seduction of the Israelites was far from a spontaneous moral failing; it was a highly orchestrated political conspiracy driven by the Midianite elders, likely with the counsel of Balaam [רבנו בחיי, אבן עזרא, ביאור שטיינזלץ, בכור שור]. The ultimate proof of this top-level coordination is the involvement of Cozbi, a royal princess. A woman of her status would not engage in prostitution in a foreign camp without a deliberate directive from the highest political echelon, which deployed her specifically for her beauty to maximize casualties among the Israelites [רמב״ן, הטור הארוך, רבנו בחיי, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. This plot also employed psychological manipulation. Because the worship of Peor involved public defecation and degradation, the Midianites anticipated that the Israelites would not recognize it as actual idolatry. Instead, they assumed the Israelites would view the act as a permissible mockery of foreign gods, or perhaps even be tricked into thinking it was a medical remedy for digestive issues caused by eating the Manna [תולדות יצחק, צאינה וראינה].
Cozbi is referred to as a sister to the entire Midianite nation, either because she sacrificed her dignity for her people, intertwining her legacy with theirs [חזקוני], or because the Midianites viewed her death as a national tragedy that demanded vengeance through a family blood feud [רש״ר הירש]. Yet, a glaring question remains: why wage war specifically against Midian and not Moab, who actually initiated the curses and the prostitution? Several factors explain this distinction. First, the Midianites injected themselves into a conflict that was not theirs. While Moab acted out of a genuine fear of the Israelites, Midian joined out of pure wickedness and baseless hatred [רמב״ן, הטור הארוך, גור אריה]. In fact, Peor was a Moabite idol that the Midianites did not even worship, proving their involvement was solely aimed at destroying the Israelites [צפנת פענח, בעלי ברית אברם]. Finally, God expressly protected Moab because their land was a historical inheritance honoring Lot, and crucially, because pivotal figures like Ruth the Moabite and Naamah the Ammonite—future matriarchs of the Davidic dynasty—were destined to descend from them. Had God not explicitly forbidden an attack on Moab, Moses would have logically concluded that if the accomplices in Midian were punished, the instigators in Moab should face an even harsher fate [רש״י, רמב״ן, מזרחי, ברכת אשר, גור אריה].