A journey through the desert presents harsh and unforgiving challenges. Yet, a divine promise of protection and sustenance constantly accompanies the people. The memory of the great miracles performed during the Exodus from Egypt serves as a powerful guarantee for future redemption. As God leads the people through dry and desolate places [מצודת ציון, ביאור שטיינזלץ], He miraculously quenches their thirst. Water drips and flows [מצודת ציון, אבן עזרא] from the most unlikely of sources: a solid rock, a place that naturally holds no water at all [אבן עזרא]. The imagery of splitting the rock is repeated to poetically reinforce this divine promise [מצודת דוד].
This miraculous provision creates a striking contrast with how God operated in the past. When the Israelites crossed the Red Sea and the Jordan River, God split the waters to make them stand still like a solid wall. In the desert, however, He does the exact opposite, splitting a solid rock to make water flow freely from it [מלבי״ם].
The primary approach among commentators is that the historical memory of God providing water in the desert acts as an assurance for the future. Just as He sustained the people then, He will lead them and quench their thirst during their future return from the Babylonian exile [ביאור שטיינזלץ, מצודת דוד]. However, this interpretation raises a historical question. If this prophecy literally describes the return from Babylon, the historical records of that journey in the Book of Ezra make no mention of rocks splitting to provide water in the desert [רד״ק]. To resolve this, some explain that the entire description is actually a metaphor. The image of water bursting from a rock is not meant to be taken as a literal event that will happen again. Instead, it is a poetic illustration promising that no obstacle or misfortune will stand in the way of the people returning to their land [שד״ל].