The survival of the Israelites throughout history stands in sharp contrast to the fate of the empires that surround them. God promises to secure the future of His people even as He brings complete destruction upon the nations where they have been scattered [מצודת ציון, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. While the Israelites experience the hardship of dispersion, their ultimate destiny is one of salvation rather than extinction.
This guarantee of existence, however, does not excuse the people from facing the consequences of their actions. They will still undergo punishment [ביאור שטיינזלץ], but it will be delivered with precise calculation. The primary approach among commentators is that God administers a restrained judgment. He disciplines the people only to the extent that they can endure it, intending to teach them a moral lesson rather than striking them with full wrath or punishing them to the absolute severity of their wrongdoings [רש״י, רד״ק, מצודת ציון]. It is a specific, measured justice—one that the nation is accustomed to and that directly corresponds to their misdeeds [מלבי״ם, רד״ק].
Ultimately, the promise of their future is one of absolute preservation. The assurance given to the people is not about simply wiping away their sins to leave them spotless, but rather about preventing their total erasure from the world. God guarantees that He will never completely uproot or destroy the nation, thereby securing their permanent survival on the stage of history [רש״י, רד״ק, ביאור שטיינזלץ].