A severe warning is given to the Israelites regarding the consequences of failing to drive the inhabitants out of the Land of Canaan. A strict principle of measure for measure is established: the exact fate intended for the native nations will fall upon the Israelites themselves if they neglect to fulfill the divine command. The core reason for this consequence is that allowing these nations to remain will inevitably lead the Israelites astray, causing them to follow foreign gods [ספורנו].
God had a specific plan and intention for the nations of Canaan. Speaking in human terms, if the Israelites fail to carry out this command, God's original plan remains unfulfilled. Consequently, God will turn that unfulfilled intention toward the Israelites, bringing the planned fate upon them instead [אור החיים, בכור שור, רש ר הירש].
Regarding the exact nature of this punishment, there are differing perspectives. A strict interpretation suggests that because God commanded the Israelites not to leave any soul alive from the Canaanite nations, failing to do so means God will similarly not allow the Israelites to live [רשב״ם]. However, the primary approach among commentators is that the punishment is not physical destruction, but rather exile and displacement. Just as God intended to completely drive the foreign nations out of the land, He will drive out and exile the Israelites [רש ר הירש, העמק דבר, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. This approach is supported by the understanding that God will not completely wipe out the Israelites, as He remembers His covenant with their forefathers. Therefore, the consequence will be exile from their land, mirroring how the Canaanite nations had the opportunity to flee and leave their territory without being killed [רלב״ג]. Ultimately, this displacement will not be the natural result of national weakness, but a direct punishment enacted through divine providence [מלבי״ם].