Following the exile of Judah's previous monarch, the king of Babylon moves to establish a new political order. His primary goal is to secure the absolute loyalty of the subjected kingdom. These historical events serve as the real-world resolution to the parable presented earlier in the prophecy, explaining the actual political strategies put into play [מלבי״ם, מצודת דוד].
The first step in this calculated maneuver involves selecting a new ruler from the royal bloodline. The commentators agree that this chosen leader is Zedekiah, the son of Josiah and uncle of the exiled king, whom Nebuchadnezzar appoints to govern Judah. This action directly parallels the planting of the seed of the land mentioned in the earlier parable.
To guarantee that Zedekiah will not rebel, Nebuchadnezzar secures his grip through both spiritual and physical means. On a spiritual level, he forces the new king into a binding covenant sealed with a severe oath. This oath carries the weight of a heavy curse should the agreement ever be broken [מצודת ציון, ביאור שטיינזלץ].
However, the Babylonian king does not rely on promises alone. On a physical level, he systematically removes the strongest and most influential figures from the land. These individuals, representing the power, dignity, and leadership of Jerusalem, are taken away as captives [רש״י, מצודת ציון, ביאור שטיינזלץ]. By holding the nation's elite as collateral, Nebuchadnezzar creates a powerful deterrent. This strategic move is designed to enforce the covenant, prevent Zedekiah from growing arrogant enough to launch a rebellion, and guarantee that the kingdom of Judah remains permanently weak and submissive under Babylonian control [רד״ק, מצודת דוד, חומת אנך].