The divine hope for human improvement often meets the harsh reality of stubbornness, especially when destructive behavior spreads to those watching nearby. God held out hope for the Kingdom of Israel, anticipating that after they had strayed and experienced the painful consequences of their actions, they would feel regret and change their ways.
How God expressed this hope is understood in two ways. One perspective suggests that God actively reached out to the people through His prophets, directly calling them to return to Him [רש״י, מצודת דוד]. Another view presents this as a divine expectation: God anticipated that once the people had fully satisfied their desires and felt the sting of punishment, their eyes would naturally open, and they would return on their own [רד״ק, מלבי״ם, ביאור שטיינזלץ].
Despite these expectations, the reality was deeply disappointing. While a few individuals might have found their way back, the kingdom as a whole stubbornly clung to its evil and refused to change [מצודת דוד, מלבי״ם, ביאור שטיינזלץ].
The tragedy then expands to include the neighboring Kingdom of Judah, described as the sister and close companion of Israel [מצודת ציון]. Judah watched these events unfold. The primary approach among commentators is that Judah clearly saw the sins of her sister kingdom and the devastating exile that followed, yet completely failed to learn the moral lesson [רד״ק, מלבי״ם]. Another viewpoint suggests that Israel actively paraded its evil behavior, causing Judah to watch and learn from its corrupt ways [מצודת דוד].
This dynamic creates a fundamental difference in the severity of their actions. The Kingdom of Israel is viewed merely as wayward, as they were the first to sin recklessly, without any past precedent of punishment to warn them. Judah, however, is considered entirely rebellious [מצודת ציון]. Judah sinned only after witnessing the complete failure and destruction of her sister. The fact that Judah saw the severe punishment fall upon Israel and still chose to continue sinning, entirely unafraid, makes her rebellion far more severe [רש״י, מלבי״ם, ביאור שטיינזלץ].