The residents of Jerusalem held a firm belief that the exiles were lost forever, assuming the land now belonged exclusively to those who remained. God responds with a striking reversal. He promises that the reality will be exactly the opposite: it is precisely the distant, scattered exiles who will be brought back and who will ultimately inherit the land [מלבי״ם, מצודת דוד, אברבנאל, ביאור שטיינזלץ].
The primary approach among commentators is that this promise refers to the distant future, specifically the Messianic era, rather than the return to Zion during the Second Temple period. This conclusion is drawn from the vast scale of the scattering described across various nations and territories. Additionally, the subsequent promise of God granting a new heart was not fulfilled during the Babylonian exile. Instead, this future redemption will be accompanied by open miracles, the resurrection of the dead, and a profound spiritual shift that will remove evil desires and lead to a total recognition of God [רד״ק, מצודת דוד, אברבנאל].
Offering a different perspective, some view the promise as spanning two distinct historical periods. One aspect of the return involves bringing people back from nearby nations, referring to the Babylonian exiles during the Second Temple era. The other aspect points to the future, focusing on the Ten Tribes who were scattered across distant territories and did not return during that time [מלבי״ם].
These two phases reflect different depths of restoration. The first is a basic collection of scattered individuals into a single location. The second is a much deeper process, signifying the return of someone who was entirely pushed out back to their natural home. Because being scattered across distant lands represents a far greater separation than living among nearby nations, it requires this special, profound act of restoration to bring the exiles fully back into the Land of Israel [מלבי״ם].