At the end of his life, Moses looks into the future with prophetic clarity and delivers a sobering message to the Israelites. He knows that despite all his efforts, the people will eventually stray from the proper path. This certainty stems directly from a prophecy he received from God [ברכת אשר על התורה]. However, Moses chooses to speak in the first person, emphasizing his own knowledge rather than simply quoting God. Like a leader throwing his full personal weight behind a warning, he uses this direct approach to deeply shake his listeners and leave a lasting impression [קונטרס חיבה יתירה].
The very fact that Moses openly admits his laws run contrary to the people's current nature, and that they will rebel against them for generations, serves as a powerful testament to the Torah's divine origin. A human lawmaker would never establish a legal system knowing with absolute certainty that it would fail in the near future. This can only be an eternal divine truth, one that the Israelites will ultimately embrace only after enduring the painful lessons of history [רש״ר הירש].
Moses warns that this moral corruption will begin following his passing, yet history shows the Israelites remained faithful to God throughout the lifetime of Joshua and the elders. Commentators approach this historical gap in different ways. Some suggest that the warning refers to the distant future, long after Joshua's generation had passed [חזקוני, בכור שור, גור אריה]. The primary approach among commentators, however, maintains that the timeline does begin immediately after Moses's passing. Yet, because a dedicated student is considered as beloved as a person's own self, Joshua's lifetime was viewed as a continuation of Moses's own life. Therefore, the predicted downfall only truly commenced after Joshua died [רש״י, מזרחי, רבנו בחיי, שפתי חכמים, משכיל לדוד, דברי דוד].
The fundamental change that occurs after Moses passes away relates to how God oversees the world. During Moses's lifetime, the consequences for sin were immediate. This swift justice prompted quick repentance and prevented spiritual decline. Following his death, however, punishments are delayed to a much later time [ביאור שטיינזלץ]. This delay causes the people to doubt God's active involvement in the world. Without immediate consequences, one transgression naturally leads to another, causing their sins to multiply [מלבי״ם, נחלת יעקב]. Ultimately, this deterioration culminates in the widespread practice of idolatry that characterized the First Temple era [רבנו בחיי, שד״ל].
Moses makes it clear that disaster will inevitably strike [אבן עזרא, ביאור שטיינזלץ, ביאור יש״ר]. The purpose of providing this warning in advance is to shape their reaction when the tragedy finally unfolds. Instead of attributing their suffering to the blind chance of nature, the people will recognize it as the direct result of their own actions, which will awaken their hearts to repent [ספורנו, הכתב והקבלה]. Furthermore, the arrival of this disaster carries a dual purpose: the very tragedy that strikes them will be the catalyst that causes them to call out to God in prayer, ultimately bringing about their salvation [קיצור בעל הטורים]. Conversely, the crushing weight of the punishment might provoke the people to rebel even further, hoping God will abandon them and remove His oversight entirely. Yet, Moses's warning ensures they understand there is no escape from God's providence, and they remain eternally bound to His service [העמק דבר].