God prepares Moses for the psychological reaction of the Egyptian leader to the Israelites' sudden change in direction. By revealing Pharaoh's thoughts in advance, God exposes the ruler's foolishness and miscalculation [ביאור יש"ר], while some suggest that God Himself plants these very thoughts into Pharaoh's mind [בכור שור]. Upon receiving intelligence reports that the Israelites have retreated from the edge of the wilderness to a narrow, dangerous location, Pharaoh concludes that their escape plan has completely failed [אור החיים, רש"י, קאסוטו, מלבי"ם]. He realizes that their initial request for a three-day journey to offer sacrifices was merely a cover to flee, but now they appear helplessly trapped [אבן עזרא הקצר].
Speaking about the Israelites to his court [אבן עזרא, רש"י, ביאור יש"ר, שטיינזלץ, אבן עזרא הקצר, פרדס יוסף, קאסוטו], Pharaoh describes a people who are utterly lost and confused, stripped of any sense of direction [אבן עזרא, ביאור יש"ר, שטיינזלץ, קאסוטו, נתינה לגר]. This disorientation is likened to a person drowning in the depths of the sea, frantically trapped and unable to find the water's surface to escape [רש"י, הירש, בכור שור, מזרחי, גור אריה]. Another perspective suggests Pharaoh views them as having been physically rejected by the wilderness, expelled back out into the inhabited land [הירש].
Pharaoh believes the desert itself has shut them in. The primary approach among commentators is that the wilderness acted as an impassable physical barrier. Terrified by natural dangers like snakes, scorpions, and wild beasts, the Israelites were forced to turn back toward the sea, leaving them surrounded on all sides [רשב"ם, ביאור יש"ר, אלשיך]. Conversely, another viewpoint presents this as a mystical blockade. Pharaoh assumes that the Egyptian idol Baal Zephon, serving as a magical force designed to prevent slaves from escaping, successfully locked the gates of the desert against them [ספורנו, מלבי"ם, אבן עזרא הקצר, הירש].
Recognizing that the Israelites are cornered between the sea and the desert, Pharaoh's advisors could have used this opportunity to peacefully persuade the frightened people to surrender and return to Egypt. To prevent the Israelites from giving up out of terror, God hardens Pharaoh's heart, pushing him to launch a violent and uncompromising military pursuit. This aggressive chase forces the Israelites to sever their ties with Egypt completely, leaving them with no choice but to face the great miracle of the splitting of the sea [אלשיך].