A severe warning of national destruction carries far more weight when backed by a painful historical precedent. God delivers a harsh message to the Kingdom of Judah, threatening them with the exact same fate that befell their northern neighbors. There is a general consensus among commentators that the threat of being cast away from God's presence refers specifically to the punishment of expulsion. The people will be driven out to a foreign land and forced into exile.
God makes it clear that their punishment will mirror the tragedy of their brothers, the Ten Tribes who had already suffered this fate. These exiled brothers are identified collectively as the descendants of Ephraim. The choice of the name Ephraim to represent all ten tribes is directly rooted in history. Following the division of the kingdom, the very first king to rule over the northern tribes was Jeroboam, who came from the tribe of Ephraim. From the moment the kingdom split and leadership shifted to this specific tribe, the name Ephraim became the standard, overarching title for all the people of the Kingdom of Israel.