A prophecy of judgment and sadness echoes against the nation's leadership for betraying their sacred duty. Following specific rebukes directed at individual kings from the royal house of Josiah, such as Jehoiakim and Jehoiachin, a piercing warning is now issued to all the corrupt leaders who have brought disaster upon their people. A sharp cry of sorrow and complaint is raised over their severe actions [מצודת דוד, מלבי״ם].
The primary approach among commentators is that the shepherds represent the leaders of the nation, specifically the kings of Judah and Israel. Rather than guarding and saving the people as faithful shepherds should, they abandoned their duties. They guided the nation down a wicked path filled with abominations and idolatry [רש״י, רד״ק, אברבנאל, ביאור שטיינזלץ].
The flock represents the people of Israel. By referring to them as the sheep of His pasture, God emphasizes that He is their true shepherd. As long as the Israelites listened to His voice, God guided them in safety. However, once the mortal kings took the scepter of leadership, they betrayed their responsibility and led the flock straight to ruin [רד״ק, מצודת דוד].
The prophet divides the harm inflicted upon the people into two distinct stages of disaster, both directly resulting from the leaders' actions. First, there is a physical destruction, representing the tragic loss of life caused by the wars these leaders brought upon the nation [מלבי״ם]. Second, there is a scattering. Because of the sinful leadership of the kings, the surviving remnant of the people was banished, dispersed, and forced into exile in enemy lands [רד״ק, מצודת דוד, אברבנאל, מלבי״ם].